Iran-Israel-US conflict 2026: How African countries are handling the unrest, and the implications in the short and mid-term

On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a coordinated military campaign targeting Iranian military and strategic infrastructure.  This operation reportedly resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and involved widespread airstrikes across several locations in Iran.

Iran has since been retaliating with drones and missiles, striking targets and US bases in Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE.

The conflict has caused significant disruptions, including heightened security concerns and disruptions affecting maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and damage to Iranian oil facilities.

These events are sending shockwaves well beyond the Middle East. For Africa, a continent with growing economic, diplomatic, and security ties to the Gulf region, the ripple effects are already being felt and may intensify in the weeks and months ahead.

In this article, our African experts examined publicly reported reactions across several African countries and assess potential political, economic, and practical implications of this unfolding conflict, and map out potential effects in the short and mid-term.

Political reactions/implications

African governments have responded to the conflict in different ways, reflecting the continent’s diverse diplomatic relationships and foreign policy priorities.

Individual countries

Morocco

Morocco was swift in publicly condemning the reported attacks targeting Gulf states. King Mohammed VI reached out directly to the heads of state of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, expressing his country’s support for regional stability and solidarity with what Rabat referred to as “brotherly Arab states.”

Algeria

Some observers were caught off guard by Algeria’s reaction, given the country’s longstanding and relatively warm ties with Tehran. According to Africa M.E., Algerian officials emphasised concerns regarding violations of Arab states’ sovereignty, while stressing the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the region.

South Africa

South Africa took a more neutral approach.

President Cyril Ramaphosa urged all sides to exercise restraint and abide by international law. He cautioned that an extended conflict risked disrupting global supply chains and energy markets. Pretoria also signalled its readiness to facilitate mediation, should diplomatic engagement be sought by the parties.

Senegal

Senegal’s Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko warned about the potentially severe economic fallout for Africa. As reported by Trends in Africa, he cautioned that the conflict could trigger a sharp rise in energy prices and a broader spike in living costs, noting that the Strait of Hormuz serves as a passageway for approximately 20% of the world’s oil traffic.

The African Union’s position

At the continental level, the African Union (AU) is occupying balanced diplomatic position.

. The AU condemned attacks against the sovereignty of Gulf states while simultaneously urging all parties to de-escalate tensions. The AU stressed the importance of dialogue and international cooperation to prevent escalation.

Economic implications

The economic consequences of the conflict are already being felt, and analysts warn that the situation remains fluid and subject to change depending on the duration and escalation of the conflict.

Energy prices

The most immediate effect has been on oil markets.

Trends in Africa reports that in early Asian trade, Brent Crude rose sharply to just over USD 80 per barrel, compared to the closing price of USD 72.87 on the Friday before the strikes, before easing slightly to below USD 79 per barrel.

For African countries that are net importers of oil, this represents an immediate and rather sharp increase in the cost of fuel, transport, and electricity generation.

Africa-based oil producers such as Nigeria, Angola, and Libya may see a short-term rise in revenue. All the same, these benefits are likely to be partially offset by broader inflationary pressures affecting the wider economy.

Investments and investment pledges

Beyond energy, the conflict threatens to disrupt the flow of Gulf investment into Africa.

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have all been major sources of foreign direct investment across the continent in recent years. They have been funding the following industries across the continent:

• Infrastructure
• Agriculture
• Technology
• Financial services

With the Gulf states now preoccupied with the conflict and military confrontations, many of these investment commitments could potentially face delays as geopolitical uncertainty increases.

Trade routes and shipping

As reported by Trends in Africa, global shipping has been significantly disrupted.

The Red Sea and Gulf routes now effectively suspended due to heightened security concerns, which is of particular concern for East African economies whose export and import flows rely on access to the Suez Canal corridor.

With vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, freight times and costs are increasing sharply. This brings knock-on effects for food prices, manufacturing, and consumer goods across the continent.

Short to mid-term view

In the short term, the most immediate consequences for African businesses and employers are likely to be higher energy costs, increased freight and logistics expenses, currency pressures in import-dependent economies, and potential security considerations affecting maritime routes near the Red Sea and Horn of Africa region.

In the medium term, if the conflict continues, more uncertainty and higher prices are to be expected. Much depends on how long the conflict continues, whether it escalates further, and how the Gulf states react once the conflict is over.

A prolonged conflict risks potentially slow the pace of Gulf investment flows into African economies for an extended period, while a de-escalation could see a relatively swift resumption of normal economic activity.

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